A Prediction

I am now going on the record with a prediction: Emilio Garza will be nominated and confirmed this summer as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.

The political importance of nominating a Latino Justice has been widely discussed. Attorney General Alberto Gonzales is an unlikely pick despite his cultural heritage: in decisions for the Texas Supreme Court, he seemed to demonstrate a soft spot for abortion rights. Garza, on the other hand, has explicitly stated in numerous opinions that he is does not believe the Constitution protects abortion rights, making him a prime candidate to renew the chipping away of Roe v. Wade.

Furthermore, there is no doubt the Bush administration, in line with its other high-profile minority appointments, would love to be remembered as the stewards of the first minority Chief Justice. This has caused some to cry "Thomas." But there's plenty of reason to doubt. It is unlikely that an appointment of a brand new conservative judge and the elevation of ultraconservative Justice Clarence Thomas would happen before the August recess, meaning it's unlikely it would happen before the 2005-06 Supreme Court term. Nobody wants to start business with an eight-member Court, so Bush seems likely to kill two birds with one stone by nominating Emilio Garza directly to Chief Justice.

This, of course, is speculation. But if I end up being right, it will be for all the reasons written above.