Romney Announces

"Political outsider" Mitt Romney announced his candidacy for President today. Remember that in a world where George W. Bush, a president's son and senator's grandson, can run for president as the anti-Washington candidate, Mitt Romney, a second-generation governor and now second-generation presidential hopeful, may as well be from Mars.

Unfortunately for Mitt, his campaign for the White House is almost certain to be a non-starter. His chances rest heavily on his credentials as a social conservative, and those credentials are as flimsy as...well, as flimsy as his credentials as a political outsider.

The New York Times story linked above points out some of his problems: Romney was once actively pro-choice, and during his 1994 Senate run he claimed to be an ardent defender of gay rights.

But this pales in comparison to the elephant in the room: polls indicate that many Americans, including a sizeable chunk of evangelical Christians, are not comfortable with a Mormon president.

To put these views in perspective, here's what South Carolina State Rep. Gloria Arias Haskins said after hearing Romney speak before the state GOP Caucus: "As an evangelical Christian, it is a big thing for me, yes. His faith is inconsistent with my faith. His faith is consistent with the Book of Mormon. My faith is consistent with God's word, the Bible, and they're not compatible."

Yikes.

Conservative Christians vote like crazy in primaries, and they have to vote for somebody. So who will they vote for? Since George Allen's macaca implosion, this is an open question.

I don't think Sam Brownback will make much of a splash. He's about as right-wing as possible on the red meat issues; he calls American abortions "a holocaust" and believes evolution and creationism should be taught alongside each other in public schools. However, he's heterodox on many other issues, including terrorism (he opposed Bush's NSA wiretapping program) and the death penalty (he's noncommittal). Additionally, he has his own sectarian problem: Brownback is Roman Catholic, not evangelical Protestant.

My bet is that former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee will significantly grow in prominence over the next few months. He's a Southern Baptist minister who actually personally opposes Darwinian evolutionary theory. Moreover, he's pro-death penalty, anti-gay (he opposes same-sex civil unions and sexual orientation anti-discrimination laws), wants the Ten Commandments in schools, and opposes comprehensive sex education.

Additionally, he'll definitely get the dieter vote: after being diagnosed with diabetes in 2003, he lost 110 pounds. Last year, he ran the New York Marathon.

The good news here is Huckabee won't stand a chance in the general election. He's much further to the right on social issues than most of the GOP leadership, and he's not going to impress fiscal and economic conservatives: the Cato Institute gave him an "F" grade for tax and expenditure policy, a record that, when combined with his status as a social reactionary, could drive corporate donors to the Democratic nominee.

Additionally, do you really think we'll elect a guy named "Huckabee"? Seriously, is that a real name, or did he just make it up? It sounds like a joke name.

This post ended up being as much about Mike Huckabee as Mitt Romney. Maybe I should change the title? Nah.